Summary: The final wave of five-year fixed-payment mortgages originated during the pandemic is approaching renewal; the Bank of Canada says this cohort’s average payment change should not be treated as an individual homeowner forecast.
What changed
In its 2026 Financial Stability Report, the Bank of Canada said that, over the next 12 months, the last group of five-year fixed-payment mortgages taken out during the pandemic will renew. The Bank estimates that this group represents about 12% of outstanding Canadian mortgages and that its payments will rise by about 15% on average.
Why it matters at renewal
This is a cohort average, not a personal prediction. The Bank also reported that many mortgage holders renewed at higher rates in 2025 and the first half of 2026, and that most managed the increase. Your result can differ substantially from the average.
Who should pay attention
This update is most relevant if you have a five-year fixed-payment mortgage from the low-rate pandemic period and will renew within the next year. It may also help anyone who wants to understand why a lender’s new payment can differ from their current payment.
What to check next
- the written renewal-offer rate and projected payment;
- your current balance and remaining amortization;
- the new term and payment structure;
- prepayment and portability features that matter to you; and
- whether a second written offer is worth comparing before you accept.
Primary source
Bank of Canada — Financial Stability Report 2026: Households
Published: May 28, 2026
Source checked: September 3, 2026